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Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in Kentucky has edged up: up 16% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+16%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pileated Woodpecker Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pileated Woodpecker in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Pileated Woodpecker Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Kentucky is projected to rise about 49% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.4–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Kentucky is projected to rise about 49% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.4–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.41.33.5
20262.41.33.5
20272.51.43.6
20282.51.43.6
20292.51.43.6

Pileated Woodpecker Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mammoth Cave North1320132009
Mammoth Cave1120141995
Cumberlnd Gp1020181973
Beattyville 2820242006
Levee619821972
Demunbruns620191966
Mckee520241967
Joy520231966
Bays Fork520181999
Levee 2520192007
Beattyville420011966
Daniel Boone419881969
East Union420191979
Morganfield420242024
Hodgenville 2420232008
Brownsville320242022
Bardwell320001967
Million319861967
Merrimac320241967
Apex320242005
Phelps319971979
Staffordsvil319971996
Lebanon Junction320232000
Lovelacevile220241968
Shiloh220231967

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.