BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in New York has surged: up 368% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+368%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
119Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pileated Woodpecker Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has surged in New York: up 367% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Pileated Woodpecker Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.4 (95% range 1.1–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.4 (95% range 1.1–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.31.01.5
20271.31.01.6
20281.31.01.6
20291.31.11.6
20301.41.11.6

Pileated Woodpecker Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dryden620251968
S Berne 2620252015
Bedford519911971
Catskills520151968
Inlet520171980
Parishville520251969
Westbrookvle420181982
Platte Cove420181993
Purdy420221983
Highland320221980
Coventryvile320231978
Oxford319751975
Trumansburg320241968
Phillips Cr320251971
Branchport320241967
Canadice L320251980
East Java320231985
North Easton320251968
Gabriels320211980
Harris Hill320252005
Petersburg220131966
Laurens220251978
Whitney Pt220151971
Mcdonough220151969
Lisle220221972

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.