BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Montana

All statesForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in Montana has surged: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+110%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pileated Woodpecker Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has surged in Montana: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Pileated Woodpecker Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Montana is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.11–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.11–0.3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Montana is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.11–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.220.100.33
20270.220.100.34
20280.220.100.34
20290.220.110.34
20300.230.110.34

Pileated Woodpecker Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clinton620251991
Whitefish Lake620242016
Arlee420131972
St Regis220251977
Inside Road220251990
Sula220241987
Swan Lake220252015
Greenoagh 3220212016
Ninemile220181993
Libby Dam120251983
Kalispell120211980
St Mary120081982
Logan Pass120241980
Victor120221993
Threemile Wa120251993
Cramer Creek120191995
Greenough119991996
Elevation Mt120211996
Woodman120231969
Elliston120121990
Chestnut120232023
East Glacier Park120192015
Skalkho-Rye120221999
Greenoagh 2120112008
Thompson Riv120231995

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.