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Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in Virginia has surged: up 188% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+188%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pileated Woodpecker Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has surged in Virginia: up 188% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Pileated Woodpecker Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Virginia is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.6–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Virginia is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.6–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.52.54.6
20273.62.54.6
20283.62.54.7
20293.62.64.7
20303.72.64.7

Pileated Woodpecker Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cornland1020141975
Brodnax920251973
Douthat920141992
Newsoms820241978
Rural Retrt820251982
Front Royal820251993
Iron Mountain 2820132012
Potts Mtn.720131992
Jerome620251971
Fincastle620251969
Pungo620251975
Carters Brdg 2620252015
Shenandoa Np620251993
Iron Mountain 3620232014
Saltville520251972
Gladys520251994
Glenwood520231992
Walkers520231992
Churchville420251973
Amherst420251969
Surry420251978
Quinby420251978
Irisburg420251979
Newville420241988
Nat Tunnel420251983

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.