BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in Virginia has surged: up 193% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+193%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pileated Woodpecker Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has surged in Virginia: up 193% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Pileated Woodpecker Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.7 (95% range 2.6–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.7 (95% range 2.6–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.52.54.6
20263.62.54.6
20273.62.54.7
20283.62.64.7
20293.72.64.7

Pileated Woodpecker Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Front Royal1420241993
Cornland1020141975
Shipman920241970
Douthat920141992
Newsoms820241978
Pine Mtn.820241996
Iron Mountain 2820132012
Jerome720231971
Gladys720241994
Nat Tunnel720241983
Potts Mtn.720131992
W Augusta620241967
Irisburg620241979
Rural Retrt620241982
Iron Mountain 3620232014
Covington520241966
Big Island520241968
Saltville520241972
Gr North Mtn520241993
Glenwood520231992
Walkers520231992
Mannboro420241969
Brodnax420241973
Newville420241988
New Market420241992

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.