BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in New Jersey has surged: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1977.

12×Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pileated Woodpecker Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has surged in New Jersey: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Pileated Woodpecker Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in New Jersey is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.23–0.94). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.58Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.23–0.9495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in New Jersey is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.23–0.94). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.540.190.90
20260.550.200.91
20270.560.210.92
20280.570.220.93
20290.580.230.94

Pileated Woodpecker Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kemah Lake920241970
Dover420231977
Ramseysburg420241995
Sandbrook320241991
Hope319941994
Midvale220161980
High Point220241978
Croton119971972
Bloomsbury120242008
Pottersville120242013
Gillette120242011
Keyport120212004
Croton 2120242016
Roosevelt120222018

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.