BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in California

All statesForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in California has surged: up 177% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+177%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pileated Woodpecker Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has surged in California: up 177% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Pileated Woodpecker Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in California is projected to rise about 64% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.55 (95% range 0.29–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+64%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.55Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.29–0.8095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±108.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in California is projected to rise about 64% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.55 (95% range 0.29–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.520.270.77
20260.530.270.78
20270.530.280.79
20280.540.290.79
20290.550.290.80

Pileated Woodpecker Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lumberyard920241976
Chester620171997
Hough Springs620071999
Tuolumne Grove520231973
French Gulch520102002
Johnsville420241977
Offield Mtn420131974
Forest Hill420221997
Fish Rock320141975
Rumsey320072001
Point Reyes320211975
Fairfax320241980
Longvale320231972
Junction Cty320111974
Laytonville320241973
Bartlett Sps320181972
Waterman Gap320242002
Bartle320211972
Glen Ellen320041973
Ukiah320092003
Pescadero320231992
Redwood N.P. 2320132013
Medicine Mtn.320122000
Hay Fork320132001
Stonyford320182015

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.