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Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Kansas

All statesForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in Kansas has surged: up 26× on the route-weighted index since 2000.

26×Since 2000TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pileated Woodpecker Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pileated Woodpecker in Kansas. See the full index history below.

Pileated Woodpecker Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Kansas is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 0.64 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.25–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.49Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.25–0.7295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Kansas is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 0.64 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.25–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19852030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.430.190.66
20270.440.210.68
20280.460.220.69
20290.470.240.71
20300.490.250.72

Pileated Woodpecker Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trading Post720252004
Wellington520252003
Melrose320182001
Wreford320232017
Grantville220212016
Hanover220182016
Bucyrus220232022
Reece220252007
Le Loup220212001
Severance220252023
Galesburg120252018
Humboldt120211985
Dalton120242007
Olathe120212004
Dover120222007
Barclay120192008
Rock Creek120182018
Pittsburg120172002
Morehead120242005
Lincolnville120182017
Olsburg120242024
Jamestown120252025
Longton120192014
Rock Creek 2120222022

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.