BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Kansas

All statesForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in Kansas has surged: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 2000.

21×Since 2000TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pileated Woodpecker Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has surged in Kansas: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 2000.

Pileated Woodpecker Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Kansas is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.21–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.43Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.21–0.6595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Kansas is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.21–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19852029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.380.160.60
20260.390.170.61
20270.410.180.63
20280.420.200.64
20290.430.210.65

Pileated Woodpecker Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trading Post620242004
Melrose320182001
Wreford320232017
Reece320242007
Wellington220232003
Grantville220212016
Hanover220182016
Bucyrus220232022
Le Loup220212001
Galesburg120232018
Humboldt120211985
Dalton120242007
Olathe120212004
Dover120222007
Barclay120192008
Rock Creek120182018
Pittsburg120172002
Morehead120242005
Lincolnville120182017
Severance120242023
Olsburg120242024
Longton120192014
Rock Creek 2120222022

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.