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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in North Carolina has surged: up 204% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+204%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pileated Woodpecker Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has surged in North Carolina: up 204% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Pileated Woodpecker Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in North Carolina is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 2.2–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in North Carolina is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 2.2–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.42.14.8
20273.42.14.8
20283.52.14.8
20293.52.24.8
20303.52.24.9

Pileated Woodpecker Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Milltail Cr2420251992
Mashoes1219821971
Beargrass1019811966
Call920251971
Fontana820251968
Montague720251990
Chowan River720062002
Grandy619751971
Eden620252001
Maple Hill620231995
Raeford620251990
Broad Creek620251993
Waterville620251994
Saxapahaw520231969
Youngsville520251966
California 2520252014
Pinetops520241999
Murphy520241996
Dortches520251990
Monticello520252006
Sturgills520252001
Cypress Lakes520252017
Uwharrie Nf520011996
N. Mills Riv519951994
Green Swamp520062002

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.