BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in Ohio has surged: up 369% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+369%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pileated Woodpecker Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has surged in Ohio: up 369% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Pileated Woodpecker Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Ohio is projected to rise about 56% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.7–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+56%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Ohio is projected to rise about 56% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.7–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.21.62.7
20272.21.62.8
20282.21.72.8
20292.31.72.8
20302.31.72.9

Pileated Woodpecker Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Scioto Trail1420131992
Tar Hollow1220241992
Dresden1020251966
Shawnee S.F. 2920192001
Mohican S.F.720251992
Adamsville619831972
Rome620251966
Pike S.F.520131992
Zaleski S.F.420251992
Birmingham420241988
Stonecreek320251996
Petersburg320071998
Meadowbrook320181966
Ray320251992
New Marshfld320251967
Scioto Furn320221992
Keene320231992
Bloomville220251996
Tick Ridge220191993
Herner Crns220121988
Fulton220252011
Baxter Ridge220251998
Newcomerstwn219951966
Smithfield220251978
West Elkton220121992

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.