BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in Vermont has surged: up 316% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+316%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pileated Woodpecker Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has surged in Vermont: up 316% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Pileated Woodpecker Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Vermont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.1 (95% range 0.54–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.54–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Vermont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.1 (95% range 0.54–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.491.7
20261.10.501.7
20271.10.521.7
20281.10.531.7
20291.10.541.7

Pileated Woodpecker Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
S Reading620241975
Bristol420181995
Middlesex320241980
Stowe320241988
Marlboro220241966
Greensboro220231967
Hinesburg219941978
North Pownal120241969
Stratton120241980
Landgrove120171966
Gaysville120171978
Post Mills120191977
Shaftsbury120221966
S Wallingfrd120211985
W Rutland120241970
St Johnsbury120241988
East Haven120231968
Northfld Fls120141980
East Calais120241968
Newbury120011986
Hardwick120241967
Fletcher120241971
Colchester120221986
Grand Isle120211980
Newbury 2120222009

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.