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Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in Missouri has surged: up 268% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+268%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pileated Woodpecker Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has surged in Missouri: up 268% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Pileated Woodpecker Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Missouri is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.4–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Missouri is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.4–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.91.32.6
20262.01.32.6
20272.01.32.6
20282.01.42.6
20292.01.42.7

Pileated Woodpecker Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Palace1220242014
Williamsvill920241994
Rueter 2920242023
Bennett820241994
Centerville820241995
Cascade720241968
Wesco720241972
Bland720241995
Eugene720242014
Mincy720242014
Pineville620241974
Hilda620241995
Emden620242018
Doe Run520242015
Pulaski420241974
Ironton419801972
Filley420241976
Syracuse420241969
Clementine 2420072005
Gerald420242013
House Springs420232018
Viburnum420242014
Moselle420242001
Peace Valley320241975
Sweden320231968

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.