BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in Missouri has surged: up 275% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+275%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pileated Woodpecker Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has surged in Missouri: up 275% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Pileated Woodpecker Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.1 (95% range 1.4–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.1 (95% range 1.4–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.01.32.6
20272.01.42.6
20282.01.42.7
20292.01.42.7
20302.11.42.7

Pileated Woodpecker Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bennett1420251994
Wesco1020251972
Williamsvill920251994
Rueter 2920252023
Cascade720251968
Richland720252014
Whitewater620251996
Centerville620251995
Graniteville620251982
Emden620242018
Lincoln620252013
Filley520251976
Osage Beach520251997
Mincy520252014
Palace520252014
Pulaski420241974
Ironton419801972
Hayden420251975
Syracuse420241969
Centertown420251974
Barks420251994
Clementine 2420072005
Eugene420252014
Viburnum420242014
Peace Valley320241975

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.