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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in Tennessee has risen sharply: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+56%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pileated Woodpecker Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has risen sharply in Tennessee: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Pileated Woodpecker Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Tennessee is projected to rise about 74% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 2.6–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+74%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Tennessee is projected to rise about 74% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 2.6–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.42.54.4
20263.52.54.4
20273.52.54.4
20283.52.64.5
20293.62.64.5

Pileated Woodpecker Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trace Lewis920172013
Big Sandy620241966
Sweetlips620231973
Indian Mound619911966
Collinwood620241966
Tullahoma520141967
Signal Mtn420241979
Jasper420241970
Fish Springs420231966
Mecca420231994
Mansfield320241979
Silerton320241971
Pond Creek320231966
Wrigley320221966
Union Hill320241967
Elk Valley320221970
Oliver Spgs320221966
Walland319891966
Allens Brdge320231966
Willis Sprng320231994
Cades Cove320241989
Trace Collinwood320182016
Indian Mound 2320232004
Pawpaw220121967
Petersburg220131966

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.