BirdAnalyst
Species · Connecticut · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Connecticut

All statesForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in Connecticut has surged: up 159% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+159%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pileated Woodpecker Trends in ConnecticutNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has surged in Connecticut: up 159% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Pileated Woodpecker Population Forecast in Connecticut

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Connecticut is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.1 (95% range 0.59–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.59–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Connecticut is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.1 (95% range 0.59–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.521.6
20261.10.531.6
20271.10.551.7
20281.10.571.7
20291.10.591.7

Pileated Woodpecker Survey Routes in Connecticut

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in Connecticut.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Warren820111973
Sherman420181974
Mid Haddam420241981
Granby420241989
Buckingham320222008
Uncasville220222009
Willimantic220181967
Woodstock 2220242016
Mystic120222017
E Hartland119921973
Woodstock120071968
Westbrook120241985
No Woodbury120221968
Greenwich120181967
Danbury120191973
Long Hill120171974
Southington120231982
New Hartford119871976
New Hartford120231996
Warren 2120222012

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.