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Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in Massachusetts has surged: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

14×Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pileated Woodpecker Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has surged in Massachusetts: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Pileated Woodpecker Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.70–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.70–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.70–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.611.6
20261.10.641.6
20271.10.661.6
20281.20.681.7
20291.20.701.7

Pileated Woodpecker Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cummington420131972
Chesterfield420241970
Cummington 2420242015
Hancock420152001
N Orange320241973
Holden320241991
Newburyport220132013
Warren220071973
Pittsfield220161974
Warren 2220242011
Marion120212019
Ware River120221993
Prattville120192015
Maynard120221969
Littleton120221990
N Oxford120141995
Princeton119731973
E Pepperell119701970
Belchertown120241982
S Barre120241994
Cheshire119941971
Sheffield120121980
Monterey120242019
N. Andover120242017

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.