BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pileated Woodpecker In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 196% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+196%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
343Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 196% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.5 (95% range 3.1–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.1–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.5 (95% range 3.1–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.43.03.8
20263.43.03.8
20273.53.03.9
20283.53.13.9
20293.53.13.9

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Milltail CrNORTH-CAROLINA202024
CouncilGEORGIA182024
Trace LormanMISSISSIPPI182019
Hixtown SwmpFLORIDA152024
Trace SouthMISSISSIPPI152019
CottontonALABAMA132024
TarverGEORGIA122024
Trace ChoctawMISSISSIPPI122019
MashoesNORTH-CAROLINA121982
HowardALABAMA112024
MillryALABAMA112018
BaxleyGEORGIA112019
RentzGEORGIA102024
BeargrassNORTH-CAROLINA101981
CornlandVIRGINIA102014
HilliardFLORIDA92024
Seminole Hills 2FLORIDA92022
WoodbineGEORGIA92024
HeadlightGEORGIA92024
BentonMISSISSIPPI92024
Trace AttalaMISSISSIPPI92019
WalterboroSOUTH-CAROLINA92017
SpragueALABAMA82024
Gainestown FerryALABAMA82015
BloxhamFLORIDA82022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.