BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pileated Woodpecker In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 311% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+311%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 311% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 0.92 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.95–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.95–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 0.92 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.95–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.871.5
20261.20.891.5
20271.20.911.5
20281.20.931.6
20291.30.951.6

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CatskillsNEW-YORK52015
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK42019
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK42024
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA42023
BristolVERMONT42018
RhinebeckNEW-YORK32024
HighlandNEW-YORK32022
TrumansburgNEW-YORK32024
BranchportNEW-YORK32024
HamburgNEW-YORK32024
North EastonNEW-YORK32024
OrleansNEW-YORK22024
PenfieldNEW-YORK22024
WatertownNEW-YORK22011
PulaskiNEW-YORK22024
Alder CreekNEW-YORK22004
N WilmurtNEW-YORK21998
SalemNEW-YORK22023
ArgyleNEW-YORK22022
ParishvilleNEW-YORK22024
West BangorNEW-YORK21998
CrescentNEW-YORK22024
Herner CrnsOHIO22012
HebronOHIO22023
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.