BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pileated Woodpecker In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 167% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+167%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has surged in Peninsular Florida: up 167% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Pileated Woodpecker In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 4.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 2.1–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 4.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 2.1–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.12.04.1
20273.12.04.2
20283.12.14.2
20293.22.14.2
20303.22.14.3

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt. OliveFLORIDA162025
ScottsmoorFLORIDA152025
PinecrestFLORIDA102025
San AntonioFLORIDA82025
St LucieFLORIDA82025
DeanvilleFLORIDA72019
NobletonFLORIDA72025
SebastianFLORIDA71992
St AugustineFLORIDA62025
Island GroveFLORIDA62025
FlamingoFLORIDA62025
OcalaFLORIDA62025
GoetheFLORIDA62025
KenansvilleFLORIDA52025
GardnerFLORIDA51999
Devils GardnFLORIDA52025
CrewsvilleFLORIDA52025
Myakka HeadFLORIDA42010
MabelFLORIDA42011
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA42025
Pennywash CrFLORIDA42024
Pleasant GrFLORIDA42008
Pleasant Grove 2FLORIDA42023
CroomFLORIDA42025
PinelandsFLORIDA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.