BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pileated Woodpecker In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 121% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+121%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has surged in Peninsular Florida: up 121% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 2.1–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 2.1–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.91.93.9
20263.02.04.0
20273.02.04.0
20283.02.04.0
20293.12.14.1

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt. OliveFLORIDA172024
CroomFLORIDA122024
Island GroveFLORIDA102024
PinecrestFLORIDA92024
St AugustineFLORIDA72024
ScottsmoorFLORIDA72024
KenansvilleFLORIDA72024
DeanvilleFLORIDA72019
SebastianFLORIDA71992
NobletonFLORIDA62024
St LucieFLORIDA62024
Green SwampFLORIDA62024
Ridge HarborFLORIDA62024
ChassahowitzFLORIDA62024
San AntonioFLORIDA52024
GardnerFLORIDA51999
Mabel 2FLORIDA52019
Sandy 2FLORIDA52024
RomeoFLORIDA42024
Myakka HeadFLORIDA42010
MabelFLORIDA42011
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA42024
Pennywash CrFLORIDA42024
Pleasant GrFLORIDA42008
Citrus ParkFLORIDA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.