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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pileated Woodpecker In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 429% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+429%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
150Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 429% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.6–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.6–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.91.52.3
20261.91.52.3
20271.91.52.4
20282.01.52.4
20292.01.62.4

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pillsbury PdMAINE111968
Priestly Br.MAINE82013
EastbrookMAINE72024
TelosMAINE72006
BrooksMAINE62019
Heron LakeMAINE62003
S ReadingVERMONT62024
Carrying PlMAINE52024
GreenvilleMAINE52022
WilmotNEW-HAMPSHIRE52024
MarlowNEW-HAMPSHIRE52024
Jefferson HlNEW-HAMPSHIRE52024
InletNEW-YORK52017
NewcastleMAINE42010
CooperMAINE42021
NorthfieldMAINE41981
CarrabassettMAINE42024
CharlestonMAINE42019
YankeetuladiMAINE42009
AndoverMAINE42021
CummingtonMASSACHUSETTS42013
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS42024
Cummington 2MASSACHUSETTS42024
HancockMASSACHUSETTS42015
ClarksvilleNEW-HAMPSHIRE42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.