BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pileated Woodpecker In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in Central Hardwoods has increased: up 27% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+27%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
163Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pileated Woodpecker in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 2.2–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 2.2–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.92.13.8
20263.02.13.8
20273.02.23.8
20283.02.23.8
20293.02.23.8

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HoosierINDIANA142024
Mammoth Cave NorthKENTUCKY132013
PalaceMISSOURI122024
Mammoth CaveKENTUCKY112014
WilliamsvillMISSOURI92024
Rueter 2MISSOURI92024
Trace LewisTENNESSEE92017
MarshallARKANSAS82019
BennettMISSOURI82024
CentervilleMISSOURI82024
ComptonARKANSAS72022
CascadeMISSOURI72024
WescoMISSOURI72024
BlandMISSOURI72024
EugeneMISSOURI72024
MincyMISSOURI72024
BaronOKLAHOMA72021
LurtonARKANSAS62023
Cave In RockILLINOIS62024
AzaliaINDIANA62024
New PhilaINDIANA62024
LeveeKENTUCKY61982
DemunbrunsKENTUCKY62019
PinevilleMISSOURI62024
HildaMISSOURI62024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.