BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pileated Woodpecker In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 301% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+301%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 301% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 3.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 2.0–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 3.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 2.0–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.81.93.6
20262.81.93.7
20272.81.93.7
20282.92.03.8
20292.92.03.8

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RamahLOUISIANA302024
KraemerLOUISIANA272024
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA122024
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA102024
BerwickLOUISIANA92018
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI92021
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS82024
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI82024
ShawLOUISIANA72024
HughesARKANSAS42023
Morgan CityLOUISIANA42022
DundeeMISSISSIPPI42022
Panther Swamp NwrMISSISSIPPI42018
South BendARKANSAS32023
SaffellARKANSAS32019
BardwellKENTUCKY32000
FreetownLOUISIANA32019
RoselandLOUISIANA32024
MayflowerLOUISIANA32024
FrogmoreLOUISIANA32024
DelhiLOUISIANA32021
WintervilleMISSISSIPPI32011
TippoMISSISSIPPI32024
HarrisburgARKANSAS22006
AugustaARKANSAS21999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.