BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pileated Woodpecker In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 266% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+266%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 266% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Pileated Woodpecker In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.9 (95% range 2.1–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.9 (95% range 2.1–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.81.93.7
20272.81.93.7
20282.92.03.8
20292.92.03.8
20302.92.13.8

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RamahLOUISIANA312025
KraemerLOUISIANA182025
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA132025
BerwickLOUISIANA92018
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI92021
ShawLOUISIANA72024
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA62025
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS52025
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI52025
HughesARKANSAS42023
FrogmoreLOUISIANA42025
Morgan CityLOUISIANA42022
DundeeMISSISSIPPI42022
Panther Swamp NwrMISSISSIPPI42018
South BendARKANSAS32025
SaffellARKANSAS32019
BardwellKENTUCKY32000
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY32025
FreetownLOUISIANA32019
RoselandLOUISIANA32025
DelhiLOUISIANA32021
WintervilleMISSISSIPPI32011
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI32025
HarrisburgARKANSAS22006
AugustaARKANSAS21999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.