BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pileated Woodpecker In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 239% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+239%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
127Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 239% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 0.76 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.89 (95% range 0.70–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.89Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.70–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 0.76 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.89 (95% range 0.70–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.840.651.0
20260.850.661.1
20270.870.671.1
20280.880.681.1
20290.890.701.1

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BravoMICHIGAN92015
CumberlandWISCONSIN62024
Chatfield 2MINNESOTA42024
Packertown 2INDIANA32024
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN32024
MontereyMICHIGAN32024
RemusMICHIGAN32024
Hamburg 2MICHIGAN32023
Barry S.G.A.MICHIGAN32012
ChatfieldMINNESOTA31996
EdwardsMINNESOTA32024
EsdaileWISCONSIN32024
MatherWISCONSIN32023
Pigeon CreekWISCONSIN32024
GreshamWISCONSIN32024
ScottvilleMICHIGAN22024
Big RapidsMICHIGAN21990
NashvilleMICHIGAN22023
GalesburgMICHIGAN22024
No BradleyMICHIGAN22019
Belding 2MICHIGAN22021
HartlandMICHIGAN22009
Allegan WmaMICHIGAN22019
Money CreekMINNESOTA22018
EvergreenMINNESOTA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.