BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pileated Woodpecker In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 216% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+216%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
128Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 216% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Pileated Woodpecker In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 0.81 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.90 (95% range 0.71–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.90Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.71–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 0.81 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.90 (95% range 0.71–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.850.661.0
20270.860.671.1
20280.880.681.1
20290.890.691.1
20300.900.711.1

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BravoMICHIGAN92015
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA52025
GreshamWISCONSIN52025
PrincetonMINNESOTA42025
Packertown 2INDIANA32024
ScottvilleMICHIGAN32025
Hamburg 2MICHIGAN32023
Chippewa Lk.MICHIGAN32025
Barry S.G.A.MICHIGAN32012
ChatfieldMINNESOTA31996
EdwardsMINNESOTA32024
Chatfield 2MINNESOTA32025
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA32025
MatherWISCONSIN32023
N FreedomWISCONSIN32025
Pigeon CreekWISCONSIN32024
LawrenceMICHIGAN22025
Big RapidsMICHIGAN21990
NashvilleMICHIGAN22023
RemusMICHIGAN22025
MottvilleMICHIGAN22025
No BradleyMICHIGAN22025
Belding 2MICHIGAN22021
RochesterMICHIGAN22025
HartlandMICHIGAN22009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.