BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pileated Woodpecker In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in Northern Rockies has surged: up 319% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+319%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has surged in Northern Rockies: up 319% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 0.45 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.29–0.75). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.52Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.29–0.7595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 0.45 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.29–0.75). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.490.260.73
20260.500.270.73
20270.510.280.74
20280.510.280.75
20290.520.290.75

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Whitefish LakeMONTANA62024
Black Mtn.OREGON62004
CascadeIDAHO51984
ChewelahWASHINGTON52016
Omak CreekWASHINGTON52024
MivodenIDAHO42023
ArleeMONTANA42013
Hells CanyonOREGON42021
NewbridgeOREGON42024
Sullivan Lake 2WASHINGTON42024
Lolo PassIDAHO32019
CoolinIDAHO32024
Baldy MountainIDAHO32016
PierceIDAHO32007
ClintonMONTANA32024
Swan LakeMONTANA32024
Howard Mdws.OREGON32024
UnityOREGON32023
DesolationOREGON32007
Spring LakeWASHINGTON32024
GrangevilleIDAHO22022
GoldenIDAHO22016
CabartonIDAHO22023
Sawtooth CtyIDAHO22005
Marble CreekIDAHO22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.