BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pileated Woodpecker In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in Sierra Nevada has surged: up 251% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+251%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has surged in Sierra Nevada: up 251% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 0.95 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.79 (95% range 0.39–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.79Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.39–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 0.95 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.79 (95% range 0.39–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.760.361.2
20260.770.371.2
20270.780.381.2
20280.780.381.2
20290.790.391.2

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LumberyardCALIFORNIA92024
ChesterCALIFORNIA62017
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA52023
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA42024
Forest HillCALIFORNIA42022
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA21974
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA22015
Butte MeadowCALIFORNIA22012
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA22007
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA22023
Lassen ParkCALIFORNIA11986
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA12023
WestvilleCALIFORNIA12024
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA12008
Silver CityCALIFORNIA12013
SattleyCALIFORNIA11999
GeneseeCALIFORNIA12023
Higgins CornCALIFORNIA12015
DownievilleCALIFORNIA12024
RivertonCALIFORNIA12022
LakeshoreCALIFORNIA12024
Tahoe NfCALIFORNIA11993
Chaos CraterCALIFORNIA12019
GoumazCALIFORNIA12011
PaxtonCALIFORNIA12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.