BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pileated Woodpecker In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in Gulf Coastal Prairie has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-50%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has fallen sharply in Gulf Coastal Prairie: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Pileated Woodpecker In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 0.82 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-51%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.40Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 0.82 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.430.001.2
20270.420.001.2
20280.410.001.2
20290.410.001.2
20300.400.001.2

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Vinton 2LOUISIANA72025
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA42025
LafitteLOUISIANA31991
Hinkles FerTEXAS32025
EstherLOUISIANA22024
DanburyTEXAS22017
Port AcresTEXAS22024
Moon Lake 2TEXAS22025
Goliad PrairieTEXAS22014
HackberryLOUISIANA12014
GlencoeLOUISIANA12017
RichardLOUISIANA12023
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA12018
WinnieTEXAS12025
StowellTEXAS12022
KatyTEXAS12017
Rock IslandTEXAS12015
ChinquapinTEXAS12025
Moon LakeTEXAS12009
McfaddinTEXAS12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.