BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pileated Woodpecker In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

14×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.7 (95% range 2.2–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.7 (95% range 2.2–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.52.12.9
20262.52.13.0
20272.62.13.0
20282.62.23.1
20292.72.23.1

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crane LakeMINNESOTA142024
ConoverWISCONSIN122024
ChisholmMINNESOTA112024
Washington IWISCONSIN92024
Land O' Lakes 2WISCONSIN92024
HovlandMINNESOTA82024
BlackduckMINNESOTA82022
BootjackMICHIGAN62023
Sawbill CampMINNESOTA62024
Eagle RiverWISCONSIN62024
Brocky LakeMICHIGAN52024
Sherry LakeMINNESOTA52022
WaskishMINNESOTA52018
WausaukeeWISCONSIN52023
Weirgor SpringsWISCONSIN52024
BerglandMICHIGAN42022
MareniscoMICHIGAN42019
HermanMICHIGAN42022
Crystal FlsMICHIGAN42024
Maple GroveMICHIGAN42024
TahquamenonMICHIGAN42024
Walloon Lake 2MICHIGAN42024
Pine RiverMINNESOTA42024
LockportMINNESOTA42024
DebsMINNESOTA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.