BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pileated Woodpecker In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 158% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+158%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
397Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 158% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Pileated Woodpecker In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 2.5–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 2.5–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.02.43.7
20263.12.43.7
20273.12.53.7
20283.12.53.8
20293.22.53.8

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ClintonWEST-VIRGINIA152024
Scioto TrailOHIO142013
Front RoyalVIRGINIA142024
Tar HollowOHIO122024
OldtownMARYLAND112024
StollingsWEST-VIRGINIA112021
Cumberlnd GpKENTUCKY102018
FinzelMARYLAND102024
FontanaNORTH-CAROLINA102024
StoneybreakPENNSYLVANIA102024
ShanghaiWEST-VIRGINIA102022
Kemah LakeNEW-JERSEY92024
DresdenOHIO92024
Mohican S.F.OHIO92024
Shawnee S.F. 2OHIO92019
DouthatVIRGINIA92014
PedroWEST-VIRGINIA92023
Beattyville 2KENTUCKY82024
Piney GroveMARYLAND82024
S Berne 2NEW-YORK82024
LandisburgPENNSYLVANIA82024
Tussey Mtn.PENNSYLVANIA82024
Pine Mtn.VIRGINIA82024
Iron Mountain 2VIRGINIA82013
RioWEST-VIRGINIA81995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.