BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pileated Woodpecker In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 146% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

+146%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pileated Woodpecker in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±99.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.14
20260.050.000.14
20270.050.000.14
20280.050.000.14
20290.050.000.14

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BeltramiMINNESOTA22013
GryglaMINNESOTA22016
BadgerMINNESOTA22017
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA22024
HuntleyMINNESOTA12024
ArlingtonMINNESOTA12017
CourtlandMINNESOTA12023
AppletonMINNESOTA12008
GlyndonMINNESOTA12015
OkleeMINNESOTA12011
WylieMINNESOTA12014
ErieMINNESOTA12017
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA11998
LockhartMINNESOTA12013
Big StoneMINNESOTA12006
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA12021
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA12023
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA12023
BowesmontNORTH-DAKOTA12012
NashNORTH-DAKOTA12006
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA12022
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.