BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pileated Woodpecker In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

18×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
176Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pileated Woodpecker in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Pileated Woodpecker In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.47 (95% range 0.33–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.47Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.33–0.6195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.47 (95% range 0.33–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.440.300.58
20270.450.300.59
20280.450.310.59
20290.460.320.60
20300.470.330.61

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mascoutah LkILLINOIS72025
Trading PostKANSAS72025
EmdenMISSOURI62024
FilleyMISSOURI52025
St MorganILLINOIS42022
EldredILLINOIS42025
MarshallILLINOIS42025
AthensILLINOIS42025
WabashINDIANA42025
WallaceINDIANA42024
BelleviewILLINOIS32025
FloraILLINOIS32022
Grape CreekILLINOIS32024
JamestownINDIANA32025
ShelbyvilleINDIANA32022
BrookvilleINDIANA32025
MaplewoodINDIANA32018
MelroseKANSAS32018
WrefordKANSAS32023
AuburnMISSOURI32024
GeraldMISSOURI32025
UnionMISSOURI31999
MoselleMISSOURI32025
Mill CreekILLINOIS22024
GulfportILLINOIS22008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.