BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pileated Woodpecker In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 435% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+435%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 435% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 0.68 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.34–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.56Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.34–0.7795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 0.68 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.34–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.520.310.74
20260.530.320.75
20270.540.330.76
20280.550.340.76
20290.560.340.77

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA62024
HeyburnOKLAHOMA52024
PaigeTEXAS52024
Peach CreekTEXAS41980
MuldoonTEXAS32024
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA22016
BeggsOKLAHOMA22023
TatumsOKLAHOMA22024
Arenosa CrkTEXAS22024
BurtonTEXAS22023
Gambill Ref.TEXAS22023
LocoOKLAHOMA11977
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA12009
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA12023
ChoctawOKLAHOMA12015
NobleOKLAHOMA12024
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA11977
DuncanOKLAHOMA12024
SkiatookOKLAHOMA12017
Oak GroveTEXAS11997
GauseTEXAS11993
Massey LakeTEXAS12024
KosseTEXAS12015
LydiaTEXAS12023
DikeTEXAS12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.