BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pileated Woodpecker In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

18×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
113Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.4–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.4–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.81.32.3
20261.81.32.3
20271.91.42.3
20281.91.42.4
20291.91.42.4

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CokesburyMARYLAND122024
Milton 2DELAWARE112017
HongaMARYLAND102024
Furnace TownMARYLAND92024
WarrenCONNECTICUT82011
MadisonMARYLAND82024
Island CreekMARYLAND82024
BerlinMARYLAND82024
PepperboxDELAWARE72016
Pepperbox 2DELAWARE72024
MillingtonMARYLAND72024
HarringtonDELAWARE62024
MillsboroDELAWARE62024
StraffordNEW-HAMPSHIRE62024
PomfretMARYLAND52024
MelitotaMARYLAND52024
Piney NeckMARYLAND52024
BedfordNEW-YORK51991
Casimir Pulaski SfRHODE-ISLAND52018
WalkersVIRGINIA52023
ShermanCONNECTICUT42018
Mid HaddamCONNECTICUT42024
GranbyCONNECTICUT42024
MiltonDELAWARE42014
DavidsnvilleMARYLAND42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.