BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pileated Woodpecker In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

17×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
113Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Pileated Woodpecker In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.0 (95% range 1.5–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.0 (95% range 1.5–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.81.42.3
20271.91.42.4
20281.91.42.4
20291.91.52.4
20302.01.52.5

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CokesburyMARYLAND152025
NottinghamMARYLAND132025
Island CreekMARYLAND132025
HongaMARYLAND92025
WarrenCONNECTICUT82011
Pepperbox 2DELAWARE82025
PepperboxDELAWARE72016
Furnace TownMARYLAND72025
DavidsnvilleMARYLAND62025
HarringtonDELAWARE52025
PomfretMARYLAND52024
MelitotaMARYLAND52025
MadisonMARYLAND52025
BedfordNEW-YORK51991
Casimir Pulaski SfRHODE-ISLAND52018
WalkersVIRGINIA52023
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT42025
ShermanCONNECTICUT42018
FredericaDELAWARE42025
MiltonDELAWARE42014
Milton 2DELAWARE42025
BerlinMARYLAND42025
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS42025
StraffordNEW-HAMPSHIRE42025
PurdyNEW-YORK42022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.