BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pileated Woodpecker In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in Piedmont has surged: up 476% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+476%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
156Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has surged in Piedmont: up 476% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.0 (95% range 1.7–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.0 (95% range 1.7–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.91.62.3
20262.01.62.3
20272.01.72.3
20282.01.72.4
20292.01.72.4

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Liberty CityALABAMA112011
ShipmanVIRGINIA92024
EkloMARYLAND82018
IjamsvilleMARYLAND82024
OlneyMARYLAND72024
MadonnaMARYLAND72022
ArcolaNORTH-CAROLINA72024
CallNORTH-CAROLINA72024
GuptonNORTH-CAROLINA72024
GladysVIRGINIA72024
Liberty City 2ALABAMA62024
Yates CrossroadsGEORGIA62024
Salem XrdSOUTH-CAROLINA62019
IrisburgVIRGINIA62024
LincolntonGEORGIA52017
Curry HillGEORGIA52019
EarltonMARYLAND52024
SaxapahawNORTH-CAROLINA52023
Uwharrie NfNORTH-CAROLINA52001
Big IslandVIRGINIA52024
Ball GroundGEORGIA42021
Lincolnton 2GEORGIA42024
Piedmont NwrGEORGIA42003
ClimaxNORTH-CAROLINA42022
YoungsvilleNORTH-CAROLINA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.