BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

House Sparrow Population Analysis

PasseridaeGeneralistsPasser domesticus

House Sparrow has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-81%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3,511RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the House Sparrow

An Old World species introduced in the 1850s, the House Sparrow is a stout, sociable bird tied closely to people, farms and city streets across the continent.

Size
6.5 in long, about 1 oz (16 cm, 28 g)
Habitat
A broad range of open and wooded habitats, often near people.
Diet
Seeds, grain and scraps, with insects for the young.
Range
Recorded on 3,511 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 49 states, most concentrated in the Appalachian Mountains.
Family
Passeridae · Generalists
Conservation
Least Concern (introduced)

Notable House Sparrow TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has collapsed in surveyed states: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

House Sparrow Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±108.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.210.0014
20270.000.0014
20280.000.0014
20290.000.0014
20300.000.0014

Where the House Sparrow Is Detected

BBS routes recording House Sparrow, sized by most recent count.

House Sparrow Population Trend by State

House Sparrow population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama-95%196897
Alaskainsufficient datan/a1
Arizona-65%197072
Arkansas-90%196953
California-58%1970205
Colorado-75%1970110
Connecticut-30%196820
Delaware-78%196817
Florida-90%196889
Georgia-95%196888
Idaho-68%197040
Illinois-81%1968105
Indiana-80%196868
Iowa-66%196939
Kansas-81%196967
Kentucky-89%196863
Louisiana-86%196988
Maine-52%196855
Maryland-81%196876
Massachusetts-47%196832
Michigan-76%196894
Minnesota-69%196976
Mississippi-94%196860
Missouri-86%196995
Montana+47%197076
Nebraska-83%196970
Nevada+261%197032
New Hampshire-39%196823
New Jersey-66%196843
New Mexico-4%197077
New York-63%1968123
North Carolina-91%196889
North Dakota-37%196950
Ohio-79%196888
Oklahoma-54%196965
Oregon-45%197084
Pennsylvania-73%1968132
Rhode Island+102%19687
South Carolina-96%196843
South Dakota-57%196955
Tennessee-86%196847
Texas-84%1969234
Utah-19%197056
Vermont-79%196826
Virginia-95%196869
Washington-9%197082
West Virginia-88%196861
Wisconsin-75%196893
Wyoming+34%197076

House Sparrow Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

House Sparrow population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest-34%197084
Great Basin-2%1970176
Northern Rockies+48%1970109
Prairie Potholes-53%1969122
Boreal Hardwood Transition-76%196894
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain-61%196886
Atlantic Northern Forest-70%1968124
Sierra Nevada+7%197018
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau-29%1970139
Badlands and Prairies-57%1969101
Shortgrass Prairie-59%1969136
Central Mixed Grass Prairie-81%1969122
Edwards Plateau-76%196921
Oaks and Prairies-80%196974
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie-83%1968278
Prairie Hardwood Transition-72%1968159
Central Hardwoods-84%1968159
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas-88%196991
Mississippi Alluvial Valley-91%196872
Southeastern Coastal Plain-91%1968280
Appalachian Mountains-82%1968361
Piedmont-83%1968159
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast-76%1968161
Peninsular Florida-88%196855
Coastal California-59%1970112
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts-60%197074
Sierra Madre Occidental+31%197028
Chihuahuan Desert+57%196945
Tamaulipan Brushlands-86%196928
Gulf Coastal Prairie-88%196943

House Sparrow Conservation Status

Least Concern (introduced)

A species introduced to North America; the IUCN Red List rates it as Least Concern in its native range. Our route-weighted index shows it down about 81% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.