BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

House Sparrow Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

House Sparrow in Virginia has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-94%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable House Sparrow Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has collapsed in Virginia: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

House Sparrow Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Virginia is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±563.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±563.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Virginia is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±563.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.0016
20260.000.0016
20270.000.0016
20280.000.0016
20290.000.0016

House Sparrow Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording House Sparrow in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Great Falls8419781966
Marion5619821976
Newbern4819821968
Backbay4119741966
Taylorstown2920101967
Gladys2520241994
Ivanhoe1719681966
Pine Mtn.1720101996
Covington1520241966
White Stone1520241966
Jerome1420231971
Brodnax1220241973
Port Royal1120191977
David1020131968
Clinchport1019781967
Hebron1020221981
Waverly919861967
Churchville820241966
Quinby820241966
Stanley720241966
Stickleyvill719901975
Edinburg620241968
Hall620231967
Tryme520221975
Sharps520241967

House Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.