BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

House Sparrow Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGeneralists

House Sparrow in Michigan has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-76%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable House Sparrow Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has collapsed in Michigan: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

House Sparrow Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Michigan is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±100.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±100.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Michigan is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±100.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.00.0023
20271.80.0022
20280.590.0021
20290.000.0020
20300.000.0020

House Sparrow Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording House Sparrow in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hamtramck17019841978
Adair14519951974
New Troy12920241971
Lapeer12220252000
S Lyons9119921966
St Charles8020191967
Homer7220241975
Drayton Plns7119871973
Bell Oak6320141966
Holt5820251969
Pettysville5819791969
Ola5520251974
Coopersville4820251979
Maple Rapids4720251987
Galesburg4520251966
Lawrence4120251969
Nashville4120251968
Bell Oak 24020252016
New Buffalo3920141992
Mottville3820251967
Richmond3720241999
Adrian3420181966
Juniata3420241966
Hamburg 23420252004
Big Rapids2919901967

House Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.