BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

House Sparrow Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGeneralists

House Sparrow in Michigan has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-76%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable House Sparrow Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has collapsed in Michigan: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

House Sparrow Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Michigan is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±96.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Michigan is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.20.0023
20262.00.0022
20270.810.0021
20280.000.0020
20290.000.0020

House Sparrow Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording House Sparrow in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hamtramck17019841978
Adair14519951974
New Troy12920241971
Lapeer10620242000
S Lyons9119921966
Ola8520241974
Holt8420241969
St Charles8020191967
Hamburg 27720242004
Maple Rapids7220231987
Homer7220241975
Drayton Plns7119871973
Bell Oak6320141966
Bell Oak 26120232016
Pettysville5819791969
Galesburg5120241966
Coopersville4620241979
Mottville4020241967
Nashville3920241968
New Buffalo3920141992
No Bradley3820241970
Richmond3720241999
Lawrence3420241969
Adrian3420181966
Juniata3420241966

House Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.