BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

House Sparrow Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGeneralists

House Sparrow in Arkansas has collapsed: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-90%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable House Sparrow Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has collapsed in Arkansas: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

House Sparrow Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Arkansas is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 4.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Arkansas is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 4.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.490.0011
20270.000.0011
20280.000.0011
20290.000.0011
20300.000.0011

House Sparrow Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording House Sparrow in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Whitton7619911967
Augusta5820011967
Farwell4420182010
Massard4020221967
Augusta 23620162002
Coal Hill3220231967
Maynard2920251967
Wilson2820251993
Ulm2620251986
Kelso2520162010
Harrisburg1620191967
Saffell1620191967
Avoca1620241967
Hickory Ridge1220222010
Russell1220212010
Crows1019911967
Compton1020141967
Centerton1020252010
West Tyler919841967
Lafe920222017
Dell720252010
Gillett720252010
Poyen620071967
Rupert520141967
Stark520251967

House Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.