BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

House Sparrow Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGeneralists

House Sparrow in Kansas has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-81%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable House Sparrow Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has collapsed in Kansas: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

House Sparrow Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Kansas is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±151.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±151.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Kansas is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±151.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.0027
20270.000.0027
20280.000.0027
20290.000.0027
20300.000.0027

House Sparrow Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording House Sparrow in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chapman13219811967
Gray10620191967
Plymell10320252000
Wellington5520251968
Coats5020191967
Lakin4320221967
Berwet4320252000
Albert3720251967
Dalton3320251968
Seneca3320221967
Wreford3020241967
Hays2920141967
Rexford2720252000
Olathe2620211967
Jamestown2620252000
Ruleton2420221981
Ulysses2320252000
Melrose2220231967
Kanopolis2220251967
Missler2020191975
Grantville1920221967
Humboldt1820221968
Covert1820251967
Bucyrus1820252022
Beloit 21720182005

House Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.