BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

House Sparrow Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

House Sparrow in Minnesota has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-69%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable House Sparrow Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has fallen sharply in Minnesota: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

House Sparrow Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to fall about 96% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.00–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-96%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.51Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±83.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to fall about 96% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.00–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.60.0019
20272.80.0018
20282.10.0017
20291.30.0016
20300.510.0015

House Sparrow Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording House Sparrow in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chandler9220251969
Austin8820231993
Chatfield6819991967
Caledonia 25320252013
Redwood Fall5120251978
Huntley5020251967
Fairmont4420251993
Whitewater4420001994
Worthington4020252004
Courtland3920251978
Whitewater 23120192011
Millville3020251970
Tracy2920252004
Chatfield 22720252003
Wigwam Bay2320231967
Ash Creek2020251975
Maynard1820151967
Le Roy1520251993
Le Center1520251993
St Stephen1420251967
Appleton1320251978
Greenbush1320251995
Lakeville1220251968
Minnetonka1220251969
Arlington1220251967

House Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.