BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

House Sparrow Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

House Sparrow in Minnesota has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-67%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable House Sparrow Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has fallen sharply in Minnesota: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

House Sparrow Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to fall about 94% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.00–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-94%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.66Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±78.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to fall about 94% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.00–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.80.0019
20263.00.0018
20272.20.0017
20281.40.0016
20290.660.0016

House Sparrow Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording House Sparrow in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Redwood Fall9420241978
Austin8820231993
Fairmont7320231993
Chatfield6819991967
St Stephen6720161967
Chandler6520231969
Huntley6320241967
Tracy6020242004
Caledonia 24720242013
Chokio4420241978
Whitewater4420001994
Worthington3820242004
Whitewater 23120192011
Le Center2820231993
Chatfield 22620242003
Money Creek2420241967
Courtland2420241978
Arlington2320241967
Wigwam Bay2320231967
Franklin2220241993
Osseo2120241967
Maynard1820151967
Millville1720191970
Knapp1620241967
Dawson1520241973

House Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.