BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

House Sparrow Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

House Sparrow in Texas has collapsed: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-84%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
234Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable House Sparrow Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has collapsed in Texas: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

House Sparrow Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Texas is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±160.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±160.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Texas is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±160.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.0022
20270.000.0022
20280.000.0022
20290.000.0022
20300.000.0022

House Sparrow Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording House Sparrow in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Zapata26519841967
Pecos24120172017
Hondo16120251969
Progreso14420111994
Brite9920251994
Vanderbilt9019761969
Lamesa8520251968
Hobson8220251968
Rhome8220251967
Waka7220251975
Lag Atascosa6920251969
Manor 25620252025
Wall5520221994
George West5420251967
Dougherty5420251995
Graford5220251967
Friona5120252001
Weatherford4320251968
Fitzhugh4019831969
Walburg3620251980
Dalhart3620251994
Oakwood3519951967
Gruver3320251994
Kingsville3220241967
Lone Oak3220221967

House Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.