BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

House Sparrow Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

House Sparrow in Texas has collapsed: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-85%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
233Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable House Sparrow Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has collapsed in Texas: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

House Sparrow Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Texas is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±153.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±153.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Texas is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±153.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.0022
20260.000.0022
20270.000.0022
20280.000.0022
20290.000.0022

House Sparrow Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording House Sparrow in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Zapata26519841967
Pecos24120172017
Progreso14420111994
Hondo10920241969
Lamesa10520241968
Vanderbilt9019761969
Rhome7020241967
Friona6220242001
Brite6120241994
Stiles6120241995
Dalhart5920241994
Lag Atascosa5520241969
Wall5520221994
George West5420241967
Twichell4920231996
Hawley4820241994
Canutillo4120241994
Hobson4020241968
Fitzhugh4019831969
Waka4020241975
Girvin3820241976
Rachal3520231967
Oakwood3519951967
Gruver3320241994
Kingsville3220241967

House Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.