BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

House Sparrow Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGeneralists

House Sparrow in Kentucky has collapsed: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-89%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable House Sparrow Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has collapsed in Kentucky: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

House Sparrow Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Kentucky is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 9.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±152.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±152.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Kentucky is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 9.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±152.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.0023
20270.000.0023
20280.000.0023
20290.000.0023
20300.000.0023

House Sparrow Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording House Sparrow in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Boxville20219831966
Levee5919821966
Shelbyville5819781966
Johnsonville3820211966
Million3419861966
Plum3120251966
Hodgenville 23020232008
Pleasurevill2920251979
Beattyville2820011966
Hodgenville2720031967
Gesling2719731967
Cedar Grove2620251966
Iron Bridge2319981966
Merrimac2120241967
Hudson2120251966
Mcbrayer1920251966
Goshen1919991966
Glencoe1920221966
Daniel Boone1819881966
Shiloh1720251967
Keysburg1720251968
Drakesboro1520031966
Hustonville1420251966
Kehoe1419921966
Joy1020231966

House Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.