BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

House Sparrow Population Trend in Vermont

All statesGeneralists

House Sparrow in Vermont has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-79%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable House Sparrow Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has collapsed in Vermont: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

House Sparrow Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Vermont is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 4.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–9.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Vermont is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 4.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.009.1
20270.000.009.1
20280.000.009.1
20290.000.009.1
20300.000.009.1

House Sparrow Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording House Sparrow in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hinesburg8019941966
Gaysville3520251966
Bristol2220251995
North Pownal1220251966
Waterville919801967
Marlboro620251966
Grand Isle620231967
Fletcher520251968
Landgrove420011966
Shaftsbury320251966
Hardwick320241966
Stowe320241988
Post Mills220241966
W Rutland220251966
East Haven220221970
Northfld Fls219941980
Newbury219981986
Colchester220241986
Newbury 2220082008
Stratton119911991
S Reading120161966
S Wallingfrd120211966
St Johnsbury120231974
Middlesex120191968
East Calais120061969

House Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.