BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

House Sparrow Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGeneralists

House Sparrow in Missouri has collapsed: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-86%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable House Sparrow Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has collapsed in Missouri: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

House Sparrow Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Missouri is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±197.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±197.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Missouri is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±197.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.0031
20270.000.0031
20280.000.0031
20290.000.0031
20300.000.0031

House Sparrow Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording House Sparrow in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sni Mills18819901967
Tarkio14019891968
Washington8619771967
Hayti8420212016
Bolckow8119921967
Cole Camp8019901971
Hamilton7719851972
Warren6019841967
Lucerne5820252016
Kahoka25720242002
Madison5620241971
Emden5220242017
Cp Girardeau4920251967
Cassville4520251967
Stet3819951972
Auburn3720252014
Kingsville3620251992
Eugene3020252013
Mcfall2920251994
Lincoln2820252013
Rensselaer2720251971
Danville2520251967
New Point2520251994
House Springs2520252017
Kahoka2419981967

House Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.