BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

House Sparrow Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGeneralists

House Sparrow in Missouri has collapsed: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-85%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable House Sparrow Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has collapsed in Missouri: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

House Sparrow Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Missouri is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±185.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±185.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Missouri is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±185.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.0031
20260.000.0031
20270.000.0031
20280.000.0031
20290.000.0031

House Sparrow Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording House Sparrow in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sni Mills18819901967
Tarkio14019891968
Washington8619771967
Hayti8420212016
Bolckow8119921967
Cole Camp8019901971
Hamilton7719851972
Cp Girardeau6320241967
Kirksville6120241994
Auburn6120242014
Warren6019841967
Kahoka25720242002
Madison5620241971
Millwood5620241999
Emden5220242017
Richland4120212015
Stet3819951972
Sedalia3720241991
New Point3420241994
Rensselaer3220241971
Luray3120242015
Moselle3120242000
Danville2420241967
Kahoka2419981967
Queen City2320222017

House Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.