BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

House Sparrow Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

House Sparrow in New York has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-64%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable House Sparrow Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has fallen sharply in New York: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

House Sparrow Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in New York is projected to fall about 65% by 2029 — from 18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.4 (95% range 0.00–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-65%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in New York is projected to fall about 65% by 2029 — from 18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.4 (95% range 0.00–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.10.0019
20268.40.0019
20277.80.0018
20287.10.0017
20296.40.0017

House Sparrow Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording House Sparrow in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jones Beach33720131966
Naples11120241966
E Youngstown9420231966
Macdougall8820241969
Orleans8420241967
Randolph8120181967
Churchville7420241968
Hauppauge6820181966
Highland5220221967
West Seneca5220041966
Cicero Ctr5120241966
Manorville3920241966
Mcdonough3920171967
Nashville3920181967
St Johnsburg3920241967
Swain 23520232012
Branchport3420241967
Argyle3420241968
Rushville3220241968
Rifton2919861967
Salem2820241967
Catskills2620151967
Cooperstown2619771970
Westhampton2520241967
Byron2520241967

House Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.