BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

House Sparrow Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

House Sparrow in New York has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-63%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable House Sparrow Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has fallen sharply in New York: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

House Sparrow Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in New York is projected to fall about 63% by 2030 — from 18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.6 (95% range 0.00–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-63%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in New York is projected to fall about 63% by 2030 — from 18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.6 (95% range 0.00–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.10.0020
20278.50.0019
20287.90.0018
20297.20.0018
20306.60.0017

House Sparrow Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording House Sparrow in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jones Beach33720131966
Macdougall12420251969
Randolph8120181967
Hauppauge6820181966
Naples6420251966
E Youngstown6120251966
Churchville6120251968
Highland5220221967
West Seneca5220041966
St Johnsburg4920251967
Cayuga4320251969
Orleans4020251967
Manorville3920241966
Mcdonough3920171967
Nashville3920181967
Branchport3420241967
Cicero Ctr3420251966
Argyle3420241968
Byron3120251967
Rifton2919861967
Ghent2920251966
Catskills2620151967
Cooperstown2619771970
North Easton2620251967
Westhampton2520241967

House Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.