BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

House Sparrow Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

House Sparrow in Florida has collapsed: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-86%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable House Sparrow Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has collapsed in Florida: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

House Sparrow Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Florida is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±237.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±237.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Florida is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±237.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.008.1
20260.000.008.1
20270.000.008.1
20280.000.008.1
20290.000.008.1

House Sparrow Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording House Sparrow in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Broward21619731966
Redlands12420241994
Ft Waltn Bch8120111966
Kendall3919911987
Boca Raton3719941968
Santa Rosa3220031987
Lovedale3120111987
Dale Mabry2719881966
Vero Beach2220021994
Shawano 21720072004
Salvista1619791967
Kissimmee1620221987
Pennywash Cr1219891987
Ridge Harbor920241991
Broad Branch820111967
Steinhatchee719931967
Myakka Head720111966
Pleasant Gr720091987
Croom720241987
Hilliard620091966
St Augustine519891967
Mabel520051966
Pinecrest519741971
Hildreth520091987
Davie520171987

House Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.