BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

House Sparrow Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesGeneralists

House Sparrow in Tennessee has collapsed: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-86%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable House Sparrow Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has collapsed in Tennessee: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

House Sparrow Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Tennessee is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 6.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±137.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±137.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Tennessee is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 6.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±137.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.0010
20270.000.0010
20280.000.0010
20290.000.0010
20300.000.0010

House Sparrow Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording House Sparrow in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Climer5920041967
Red Bank4519781966
Pawpaw3020121966
Big Sandy2420251966
Humboldt2120251966
Soddy1919811967
Tiptonville1520251966
Petersburg1520191966
Corryton Rd1420191966
Mansfield1320251966
Walland1319891966
Pawpaw 21220252013
Jasper1020251967
Allens Brdge1020231966
Brownsville920251966
Collinwood820251966
Oliver Spgs720221966
Indian Mound 2720232005
Bradyville620211966
Tullahoma620151967
Tibbs520251966
Whiteville520241966
Wrigley520221966
Belotes Bend520181966
Union Hill520241967

House Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.