BirdAnalyst
Species · Delaware · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

House Sparrow Population Trend in Delaware

All statesGeneralists

House Sparrow in Delaware has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-78%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable House Sparrow Trends in DelawareNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has collapsed in Delaware: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

House Sparrow Population Forecast in Delaware

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Delaware is projected to fall about 76% by 2030 — from 34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.1 (95% range 0.00–39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-76%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Delaware is projected to fall about 76% by 2030 — from 34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.1 (95% range 0.00–39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026140.0044
2027120.0043
2028110.0041
20299.50.0040
20308.10.0039

House Sparrow Survey Routes in Delaware

Routes recording House Sparrow in Delaware.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wilmington11120141966
Holleyville6120041966
Harrington5620251966
Lowes Xrds5119911966
Blackbird5120251994
Dover3819871966
Frederica3520251966
Milton 23420252017
Pepperbox2820161998
Frankford2320121966
Pepperbox 22220252017
Milton1620161966
Mt Pleasant1420191966
Bethany Bch1319901966
Holleyville 21220242006
Georgetown920211992
Millsboro520252017

House Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutfloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.