BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

House Sparrow Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

House Sparrow in North Carolina has collapsed: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-91%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable House Sparrow Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has collapsed in North Carolina: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

House Sparrow Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in North Carolina is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 5.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±374.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±374.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in North Carolina is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 5.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±374.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.0023
20270.000.0023
20280.000.0023
20290.000.0023
20300.000.0023

House Sparrow Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording House Sparrow in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Beargrass21819811966
Grandy15719751971
Cherryville14519681966
Fairmont8319811968
Shallotte7919911966
Myrtle Grove6920251966
Madison3819851966
Craven Gap3119751969
Genoa2320251990
Jonas Ridge2219711968
Belgrade2020192002
Old Trap1920242010
Bethel1820252002
Climax1620251966
Mooresville1620011966
Jamesville1620251983
Rose1420251968
Hertford1420241997
Kinston1320241966
Copeland1220251968
Flay1220251990
Durham1220251990
Rheasville1220172005
Dudley1220252002
Congleton1220252001

House Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.