BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

House Sparrow In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGeneralists

House Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain has collapsed: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-90%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
278Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has collapsed in Southeastern Coastal Plain: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 3.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±323.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±323.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 3.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±323.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.0011
20260.000.0011
20270.000.0011
20280.000.0011
20290.000.0011

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording House Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BeargrassNORTH-CAROLINA2181981
GrandyNORTH-CAROLINA1571975
FairmontNORTH-CAROLINA831981
Ft Waltn BchFLORIDA812011
ShallotteNORTH-CAROLINA791991
Myrtle GroveNORTH-CAROLINA712024
FoleyALABAMA471984
BackbayVIRGINIA411974
TupeloMISSISSIPPI402022
ShilohKENTUCKY392023
Boykin Ml PdSOUTH-CAROLINA391968
Alabama PtALABAMA322003
Santa RosaFLORIDA322003
LovedaleFLORIDA312011
Rock ChapelALABAMA272024
GenoaNORTH-CAROLINA262024
FowlstownGEORGIA232016
LovelacevileKENTUCKY232024
Alabama Pt 2ALABAMA202019
BelgradeNORTH-CAROLINA202019
OwensboroGEORGIA192024
GreensburgLOUISIANA192022
Old TrapNORTH-CAROLINA192024
Big SandyTENNESSEE192024
DudleyNORTH-CAROLINA182024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.