BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

House Sparrow In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

House Sparrow in Prairie Potholes has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-53%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
122Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has fallen sharply in Prairie Potholes: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

House Sparrow In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 74% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 0.00–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-74%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 74% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 0.00–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.50.0032
20277.60.0031
20286.70.0030
20295.80.0029
20304.90.0028

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording House Sparrow in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA3641984
ChandlerMINNESOTA922025
GarnerIOWA901993
PantherIOWA892025
ClareIOWA722019
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA712025
RedstoneMONTANA612025
HarlemMONTANA592021
ZearingIOWA571995
TurtonSOUTH-DAKOTA562025
BurchinalIOWA552025
GlentanaMONTANA532025
Redwood FallMINNESOTA512025
HuntleyMINNESOTA502025
WashingtonIOWA482025
MccallsburgIOWA482025
Great FallsMONTANA462025
FairmontMINNESOTA442025
WorthingtonMINNESOTA402025
CourtlandMINNESOTA392025
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA342025
LennoxSOUTH-DAKOTA322025
TracyMINNESOTA292025
ScrantonIOWA282025
TitonkaIOWA282025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.