BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

House Sparrow In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

House Sparrow in Prairie Potholes has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-53%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
122Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has fallen sharply in Prairie Potholes: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 77% by 2029 — from 22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 0.00–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-77%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 77% by 2029 — from 22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 0.00–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.80.0032
20267.90.0031
20276.90.0030
20286.00.0029
20295.10.0028

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording House Sparrow in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA3641984
TrippSOUTH-DAKOTA992024
Redwood FallMINNESOTA942024
PantherIOWA902024
GarnerIOWA901993
FairmontMINNESOTA732023
ClareIOWA722019
ChandlerMINNESOTA652023
MccallsburgIOWA642024
BurchinalIOWA642024
HuntleyMINNESOTA632024
TracyMINNESOTA602024
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA602024
HarlemMONTANA592021
ZearingIOWA571995
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA542024
RedstoneMONTANA522024
ChokioMINNESOTA442024
WashingtonIOWA432024
Great FallsMONTANA412024
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA402024
Sun RiverMONTANA392024
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA392024
WorthingtonMINNESOTA382024
LennoxSOUTH-DAKOTA372024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.