BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

House Sparrow In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGeneralists

House Sparrow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-76%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
159Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has collapsed in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 68% by 2029 — from 18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 0.00–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-68%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 68% by 2029 — from 18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 0.00–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.60.0026
20268.70.0025
20277.70.0024
20286.80.0023
20295.90.0022

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording House Sparrow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jones BeachNEW-YORK3372013
SinepuxentMARYLAND2411978
NewburyportMASSACHUSETTS1662022
LargoMARYLAND1581981
Snow HillMARYLAND1311976
WilmingtonDELAWARE1112014
Cape May ChNEW-JERSEY892013
ClarksvilleNEW-JERSEY871991
JonesMARYLAND831994
WestbrookCONNECTICUT752024
Wallum LakeRHODE-ISLAND712024
MysticCONNECTICUT702023
Woodbury HgtNEW-JERSEY702024
VillasNEW-JERSEY691981
Del HavenNEW-JERSEY691991
Pedricktown 2NEW-JERSEY682024
HauppaugeNEW-YORK682018
DeepwaterNEW-JERSEY671977
HolmansvilleNEW-JERSEY662009
Sachuest PtRHODE-ISLAND621990
HolleyvilleDELAWARE612004
MaynardMASSACHUSETTS602022
Kittery PtMAINE552024
Lowes XrdsDELAWARE511991
E PepperellMASSACHUSETTS481994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.