BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

House Sparrow In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGeneralists

House Sparrow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-76%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has collapsed in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

House Sparrow In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 70% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 0.00–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-70%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 70% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 0.00–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.30.0025
20278.40.0025
20287.50.0024
20296.60.0023
20305.70.0022

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording House Sparrow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jones BeachNEW-YORK3372013
SinepuxentMARYLAND2411978
NewburyportMASSACHUSETTS1662022
LargoMARYLAND1581981
Snow HillMARYLAND1311976
WilmingtonDELAWARE1112014
Cape May ChNEW-JERSEY892013
ClarksvilleNEW-JERSEY871991
JonesMARYLAND831994
Wallum LakeRHODE-ISLAND772025
MysticCONNECTICUT702023
WestbrookCONNECTICUT692025
VillasNEW-JERSEY691981
Del HavenNEW-JERSEY691991
HauppaugeNEW-YORK682018
DeepwaterNEW-JERSEY671977
HolmansvilleNEW-JERSEY662009
Sachuest PtRHODE-ISLAND621990
HolleyvilleDELAWARE612004
HarringtonDELAWARE562025
MansfieldMASSACHUSETTS542025
Kittery PtMAINE532025
Lowes XrdsDELAWARE511991
BlackbirdDELAWARE512025
Woodbury HgtNEW-JERSEY512025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.