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Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

House Sparrow In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

House Sparrow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has collapsed: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-91%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has collapsed in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±184.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±184.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±184.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.0038
20260.000.0038
20270.000.0038
20280.000.0038
20290.000.0038

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording House Sparrow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HaytiMISSOURI842021
WhittonARKANSAS761991
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI632024
CarlisleLOUISIANA591988
AugustaARKANSAS582001
Morgan CityLOUISIANA551986
KeystoneLOUISIANA542013
KraemerLOUISIANA512024
MaynardARKANSAS432024
Baton RougeLOUISIANA382024
Augusta 2ARKANSAS362016
GonzalesLOUISIANA362019
BrousvilleLOUISIANA352024
CommerceMISSISSIPPI341993
MayflowerLOUISIANA302024
PawpawTENNESSEE302012
UlmARKANSAS272024
KelsoARKANSAS252016
Tchula 2MISSISSIPPI251994
LaroseLOUISIANA211992
BlodgettMISSOURI182024
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE182023
EudoraARKANSAS172016
HarrisburgARKANSAS162019
SaffellARKANSAS162019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.